10% of Kenyans will not make traditional calls this year. This is according to the 15th edition of Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) predictions by Deloitte East Africa. 1 in 10 Kenyans under the age of 25 will substitute voice calls with a combination of text messages, social media and instant messaging such as Whatsapp. There is a name for these people – Data Exclusives, and they account for 26% of smart phone users in developed markets at a global level. This comes as a result of a drop in data costs and evolving consumer habits especially amongst younger age groups.
Speaking at the release of the predictions, Erik Van Der Dussen, TMT Leader for Deloitte East Africa said, “Data prices are falling, new players are coming in and consumer behaviour is evolving to be more acceptable of online activity. Therefore the data boom in this country is a fact. The boom has further been accelerated by the fact that 35% of phone users in Kenya have smart phones.”
Catalysts to Increase In Data Exclusives
There are now many options of communication without speaking; social networks have replaced phone conversations between friends and family. They come with multiple enhancements to a standard conversation such as the ability to broadcast to many people, to use emojis and append photos, videos and hyperlinks. Social media also offers control over when to respond. Additionally, in place of consumers making calls to make orders or to do bookings, there are mobile apps that do that for them.
Mobile Network Operators have been actively promoting the use of data through bundled offers and providing ‘free’ access. Consequently, Deloitte research shows a skew towards data intensive services by the age group below 25 years as compared to older age groups while the same applies to users of smart phones and tablets whose data consumption is above that of the average subscriber who owns a feature phone.
“Instant Messaging has seen the most rapid uptake among consumers since 2012, with the number of adults using IM rising from 27% in 2012 to 59% in 2015 that is, from 7 trillion to 43 trillion people. Carriers could reduce the quantity of spectrum assigned to voice and make it available for data,” said Paul Lee, Deloitte’s Head of Global Research and author of the TMT predictions.
The firm also predicts that in technology, cognitive technology is likely to make an entry in Kenya via global deployment. Mobile commerce will have reached its tipping point. Businesses are expected to opt for mobile payment solutions over cash and cards driven by consumer preferences, convenience and wide accessibility.
In media, the rise of cinema attendance will continue as it has from 2012, due to blockbuster movies expected to be released in the year. Deloitte also predicts that the entry of Netflix into the country will be of minimal impact this year as it will be restricted to a specific section of the market at the moment. However, the move by Netflix to go global is likely to trigger other web-based providers to begin looking for frontier markets like Kenya.
In telecommunications, one in five phones sold will be a used phone, due to the accumulation of smart phones in people’s drawers. According to the research, most Kenyans acquire new phones, the second majority get them used from a family member or friend and only a minority buy used phones.
In the global scene Deloitte has the following additional predictions;
Technology: By the end of 2016, fewer than 25% of Information Technology jobs will be held by women. It is firstly due to education factors but it is also due to more than just education, with factors like men being preferred to women in recruiting, hiring, retaining, paying and promoting for most IT-related jobs.
Also, more than 80 of the world’s biggest software companies will have integrated cognitive technologies (computer vision, machine learning, natural language processing, optimization, learning and scheduling, robotics, rules-based systems, speech recognition) into their products.
Media: The European football market will likely reach US $30 Billion for the first time for 2016/2017.
Virtual Reality gear forecast to hit record billion-dollar mark in 2016.
In eSports, global revenues of about US $500 Million will likely be generated, and it will have an audience of regular and occasional viewers of close to 150 million people.
Photo sharing – In 2016, 2.5 trillion photos are expected to be shared or stored online. Over 90% will likely have been taken by a smart phone. This does not include the trillions of photos that remain on devices’ memory.
The number of Gigabit per second internet connections is expected to rise to 10M by end year due to increasing availability and falling prices.
You can checkout the infographic here and download the report here.
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